Population projections for Scotland, based on 2022 mid-year population estimates.
| Dimension | Value |
|---|---|
| Age |
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| Measure Type | |
| Population Projection Variant |
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| Reference Period | |
| Sex | |
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Reference Area
(showing types of area available in these data) |
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Entire dataset
Note: These may be large files. |
CSVN-Triples |
The 2022-based national population projections are based on the estimated population at 30 June 2022 and a set of demographic assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration based on analysis of past trends and expert advice. Given the uncertainty in demographic behaviour, additional variant projections are also produced. These variants are produced in the same way as the principal projection but use alternative plausible assumptions.
The national population projections are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of National Records of Scotland (NRS). This ensures that the projections for Scotland are consistent and comparable with those for the other constituent countries of the United Kingdom.
These projections are the first set based on Scotland's Census 2022. We focus on the 25 year to mid-2047; however, projections are available for a 100-year period. Projections become less certain the further into the future they go.
Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website for up to mid-2047, and the ONS website up to mid-2122.
This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.
More information on the method used to produce these projections is available on the ONS website.
More information on the variant projections can also be found on the ONS website.
Population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.
The reliability of projections decreases over time, and projections tend to be less reliable in periods of rapid change. Projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations. Projections of the number of adults (particularly older people) are usually more reliable than those for children because they are based on people who are already living in Scotland. Migration tends to fluctuate more than fertility or mortality, and it is harder to measure, so there tends to be more uncertainty around the migration figures.
It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.
The projections are widely used in areas such as planning of public services, resource allocation, understanding potential demand for health services including the impact of our ageing population, and teacher workforce planning. They are also used by the UK Government, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Scottish Fiscal Commission to inform upcoming budgets and fiscal forecasts.
National population projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.
This is a linked data resource: it has a permanent unique uri at which both humans and machines can find it on the Internet, and which can be used an identifier in queries on our SPARQL endpoint.
A linked data-orientated view of dimensions and values
| Dimension | Locked Value |
|---|---|
|
Age
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/age
|
(not locked to a value) |
|
Population Projection Variant
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/populationProjectionVariant
|
(not locked to a value) |
|
Reference Area
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refArea
|
(not locked to a value) |
|
Reference Period
http://purl.org/linked-data/sdmx/2009/dimension#refPeriod
|
(not locked to a value) |
|
Sex
http://statistics.gov.scot/def/dimension/sex
|
(not locked to a value) |
|
Measure Type
http://purl.org/linked-data/cube#measureType
|
(not locked to a value) |
Linked Data is stored in graphs. We keep dataset contents (the data) separately from the metadata, to make it easier for you to find exactly what you need.
The data in this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections-2022-based
The data structure definition for this data cube dataset is stored in the same graph as the data: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections-2022-based
All other metadata about this dataset are stored in the graph: http://statistics.gov.scot/graph/population-projections-2022-based/metadata
A breakdown by type of the 30,432 resources in this dataset's data graph.
| Resource type | Number of resources |
|---|---|
| Collection | 2 |
| Component specification | 8 |
| Data set | 1 |
| Data structure definition | 1 |
| Observation | 30,420 |
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